Intel is in a precarious position, facing significant financial losses due to shrinking market share and controversies surrounding selling “defective” 13th and 14th Generation Core processors. Such processors suffer from severe silicon degradation, a result of Intel pushing higher voltages and failing to regulate third-party motherboard vendors who enable unrestricted power limits by default.
This approach has been criticized for inflating performance benchmarks at the cost of long-term reliability.
Intel recently announced plans to lay off over 15,000 employees in a bid to stabilize and stay afloat as the decade draws to a close. However, the future of Intel’s desktop CPU lineup is now uncertain, following the abrupt decision to scrap the 20A process node for its upcoming Arrow Lake processors.
Arrow Lake, the desktop counterpart to Lunar Lake, will instead likely be built using silicon from rival TSMC, signaling a shift in Intel’s manufacturing strategy.
While there’s no official word on Intel’s future financial outlook or the performance of the upcoming Arrow Lake desktop processors, rumors continue to circulate as well-known leakers look ahead. Intel’s Arrow Lake-S desktop CPUs are expected to launch within the next three months, but discussions have already shifted to their potential successors.
Reputable leaker HXL on Twitter reports that Arrow Lake may be the only architecture to use the LGA 1851 socket, with the rumored cancellation of Arrow Lake Refresh.
Intel was allegedly planning to release two versions of Arrow Lake for the LGA 1851 platform: the standard Arrow Lake CPUs, expected to launch in Q4, and a possible Arrow Lake Refresh. This would mirror the approach seen with Alder Lake, Intel’s first “hybrid” processor, followed by its refresh, Raptor Lake.
Intel frequently releases refreshed CPU architectures to bridge the gap between major architectural redesigns, a strategy that’s not particularly surprising given the company’s history. For instance, Intel relied on Skylake-based products from the 6th to the 10th Generation of Core processors, largely due to delays and challenges in bringing their overly ambitious 10nm node to market.
The company is also notorious for regularly changing motherboard sockets, a practice that benefits AIB board vendors. Long-term socket compatibility would result in fewer sales over time, so Intel’s constant push for new platforms, chipsets, and sockets forces consumers to buy new motherboards with each generation.
This, in turn, boosts sales for AIB partners, ensuring a steady revenue stream from regular motherboard updates.
Intel is particularly infamous for its LGA 1151 socket, introduced in 2015 for the 6th Generation Core processors. Skylake’s debut was tumultuous, but Intel rebranded the architecture for the next generation, with the 7th Generation featuring a more refined 14nm+ process.
This update allowed for significantly higher clock speeds compared to its “predecessor.”
However, Intel faced a major challenge in 2017 when AMD’s Zen architecture made a strong market entry.
Intel struggled to compete in offering affordable processors with higher core counts. At the time, Intel’s flagship i7-7700K, with only 4 cores and 8 threads, had an MSRP of $350.
In contrast, AMD’s Ryzen 7 1700X and the more favorable budget-friendly Ryzen 7 1700, priced at $400 and $330 respectively, offered 8 cores and 16 threads, matching Intel’s high-end desktop (HEDT) processors and delivering exceptional value for consumers.
Intel responded at the end of 2017 with Coffee Lake, which was essentially just an extension of Skylake, still using the same LGA 1151 socket but now featuring two additional cores for a total of 6 cores and 12 threads.
The catch? Despite the same socket, these CPUs were incompatible with previous 200-series motherboards, forcing users to purchase new 300-series motherboards for the upgrade of the same Core architecture and effectively the same socket however its pin arrangement was changed to eliminate compatibility deliberately.
While Coffee Lake was fully compatible with the LGA 1151 socket, Intel devised a perplexing strategy by introducing “LGA 1151 V2” motherboards.
These boards were functionally identical to the original LGA 1151 but had slight alignment changes, rendering Coffee Lake processors incompatible with earlier motherboards. In some cases, it was possible to modify older LGA 1151 motherboards to support Coffee Lake, but Intel’s move was largely seen as a deliberate attempt to force consumers to purchase new “V2” motherboards.
Despite using the same platform and architecture, Intel prevented cross-compatibility for reasons that baffled many, leading to frustration among users that quickly subsided.
If HXL’s information is correct, the LGA 1851 socket could become one of Intel’s shortest-lived platforms.
With the rumored cancellation of the Arrow Lake refresh and no clear replacement on the horizon, Arrow Lake users may be left with a dead-end platform. This means consumers would have no upgrade, making it a risky investment.
You’ll be pleased to learn that the LGA 1851 socket is essentially identical to Intel’s current LGA 1700 socket in terms of design. Alder Lake and Raptor Lake CPUs use 1700 contact pins, even though the sockets are pretty much the same. However, the upcoming Arrow Lake processors will feature 1851 contact pins, despite running on what is largely the “same” platform.
Intel’s Nova Lake-S desktop CPUs are expected to be the true successor to the Arrow Lake-S lineup and will likely fall under the “Core Ultra 400” series, while the “Core Ultra 300” series will feature the Panther Lake design, which is expected to target mobile platforms specifically, similarly to Lunar Lake.
Nova Lake promises to be a significant upgrade over Arrow Lake, featuring entirely new CPU and GPU core designs and it appears that Intel has already coined the codename for its successor.
According to HXL, Razer Lake is rumored to be the successor to Nova Lake, though this is projecting several years ahead, likely targeting a 2026/2027 timeframe. Razer Lake represents one of the furthest future architectures in Intel’s alleged roadmap.
Nova Lake, which is set to replace Lunar Lake, is expected to feature the Royal Core architecture, designed to deliver both high performance and efficiency. Beyond the codename, little is known about Razer Lake at this time, and it’s uncertain whether it will use Royal Core or transition to the next generation, potentially named Cobra Core.
As things stand, Arrow Lake CPUs may be the only processors to utilize the LGA 1851 socket, with the rumored cancellation of the Arrow Lake Refresh. Both Nova Lake and Razer Lake will likely require a new socket, raising the entry cost for regular upgraders.
This stands in contrast to AMD’s AM5 platform, introduced with Ryzen 7000 series, which promises compatibility through at least 2027. AMD has won over many enthusiasts with the longevity and performance of Ryzen, earning significant favor among gamers.
The longevity of the AM4 platform is unparalleled; introduced in early 2017, it has stood the test of time, with new processors still being released for it as part of the Ryzen 5000 series even today.
The AM4 socket has supported an entire generational cycle of DDR4 memory, while the new AM5 platform brings DDR5 support, likely ensuring compatibility as we move forward. A long-lasting platform offers consumers the best value for hardware that continually evolves, with Ryzen 3000, or Zen 2, being particularly noteworthy for introducing the “chiplet” design.
This innovation effectively doubled the core count on a mainstream socket from 8 cores to 16.
In contrast, Intel’s upcoming Arrow Lake is surrounded by uncertainty and skepticism. Its initial plans to utilize the advanced 20A process have fallen through, and early projections indicated that the next desktop chips would perform around 8-15% faster than the current 14th Generation Raptor Lake processors, depending on workload conditions.
While using rival silicon might improve Intel’s power consumption and efficiency, these are areas Intel traditionally neglects for desktop, additionally the usage of rival silicon could potentially hinder Arrow Lake’s core frequency further if they opt for TSMC’s 4nm process, which is primarily orientated for energy efficiency and density, as evidenced by Zen 5.
With the cancellation of the Arrow Lake Refresh, it appears that Arrow Lake will be the only CPU series on the LGA 1851 platform. This raises a significant question: why would consumers choose to invest in a product with limited longevity or upgrade potential?
Motherboards are likely to be costly, and the LGA 1851 socket would essentially be considered end-of-life the moment it hits the market.
Even if Intel’s Arrow Lake were to provide meaningful performance benefits over Ryzen 9000 series processors, excluding AMD’s inevitable release of X3D SKUs which are likely to turn that tide.
It simply isn’t worth being gouged and abandoned by the headless chicken that is Intel who are more concerned with Tweeting bible versus and siphoning billions of dollars from the US Taxpayer for “local manufacturing” as Intel scraps their intentions of using their own silicon at the last goddamn minute so they can now become another customer of TSMC.
Intel is currently in a precarious position, facing significant challenges. The situation has deteriorated to the point where companies like Broadcom and Qualcomm are pursuing bids to potentially acquire what was once the world’s largest chip manufacturer. Given their current financial state, it seems unlikely that Intel’s prospects will improve with the upcoming Arrow Lake and future products.
